Publications
Matt Newman's publications: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
Home
Matt Newman's publications
Toride, K., M. Newman, A. Hoell, A. Capotondi, J. Schlor, and D. Amaya, 2024: Using Deep Learning to Identify Initial Error Sensitivity for Interpretable ENSO Forecasts. Submitted to Artif. Intell. Earth Syst.
Long. X., and co-authors, 2024: Evaluating Current Statistical and Dynamical Forecasting Techniques for Seasonal Coastal Sea Level Prediction. Submitted to J. Climate .
Amaya, D. J., N. Maher, C. Deser, M. G. Jacox, M. Alexander, M. Newman, J. Dias, and J. Lou, 2024: Future changes in seasonal climate predictability . Submitted to J. Climate .
Xu, T., M. Newman, M. Alexander, and A. Capotondi, 2024: Seasonal
Predictability of Bottom Temperatures along the North American West
Coast . Submitted to J. Geophys. Res. Oceans .
Lenssen, N., P. DiNezio, L. Goddard, C. Deser, Y. Kushnir, S. Mason, M. Newman, and Y. Okumura, 2024: Strong El Nino events lead to robust multi-year ENSO predictability .Geophys. Res. Lett. , 51 , e2023GL106988.
Wei, H.-H., M. Alexander, and M. Newman, 2024: Impact of Time Scales on North Pacific Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes Driven by ENSO . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 51 , e2023GL107009.
Xu, T., M. Newman, A. Capotondi, and M. Alexander, 2024: A Forecast Test for Reducing Dynamical Dimensionality of Model Emulators . JAMES , 16 , e2022MS003599, doi: 10.1029/2022MS003599.
Seager, R., M. Ting, P. Alexander, H. Liu, J. Nakamura, C. Li, and M. Newman, 2023: Ocean-forcing of cool season precipitation drives ongoing and future decadal drought in southwestern North America . npj Climate and Atmos. Sci. , 6 , doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00461-9.
Zhao, Y., E. DiLorenzo, M. Newman, A. Capotondi, and
S. Stevenson, 2023: A
Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate
Models . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 50 , e2023GL104037, doi: 10.1029/2023GL104037.
Stevenson, S., X. Huang, Y. Zhao, E. DiLorenzo, M. Newman, L. van Roekel, T. Xu, and A. Capotondi, 2023: Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble . JAMES , 15 , e2023MS003653, doi: 10.1029/2023MS003653.
Lou, J., M. Newman, and A. Hoell, 2023: Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s . npj Climate and Atmos. Sci. , 6 , 89, doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00417-z.
Beverley, J., M. Newman, and A. Hoell, 2023: Rapid development of systematic ENSO-related seasonal forecast errors . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 50 , e2022GL102249, doi: 10.1029/2022GL102249.
Kumar, S., C. Dewes, M. Newman, and Y. Duan, 2023: Robust Changes in North America’s Hydroclimate Variability and Predictability . Earth's Future , 11 , e2022EF003239, doi: 10.1029/2022ef003239.
Long. X., S.-I. Shin, and M. Newman, 2023: Statistical Downscaling of Seasonal Forecast of Sea Level Anomalies for US Coasts . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 50 , e2022GL100271, doi: 10.1029/2022GL100271.
Di Lorenzo, E., T. Xu, Y. Zhao, M. Newman, A. Capotondi, S. Stevenson, D.J. Amaya, B.T. Anderson, R. Ding, J.C. Furtado, Y. Joh, G. Liguori, J. Lou, A.J. Miller, G. Navarra, N. Schneider, D.J. Vimont, S. Wu, and H. Zhang, 2023: Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability . Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. , 15 , 249-275, doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-084555.
Albers, J.R., M. Newman, A. Hoell, M. L. Breeden, Y. Wang, and J. Lou, 2022: The February 2021 Cold Air Outbreak in the United States: a Subseasonal Forecast of Opportunity . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 103 , E2887–E2904, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0266.1.
Xu, T., M. Newman, A. Capotondi, S. Stevenson, E. DiLorenzo, and M. Alexander, 2022: An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability . Nat. Commun. , 13 , 7396, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-34934-x.
Carrillo, C., S. Coats, M. Newman, D. A. Herrera, X. Li, R. Moore, S.-I. Shin, S. Stevenson, F. Lehner, and T. R. Ault, 2022: Megadrought: a series of unfortunate La Niña events? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , 127 , e2021JD036376, doi: 10.1029/2021JD036376.
Breeden, M.L., J.R. Albers, A.H. Butler, and M. Newman, 2022: The spring minimum in subseasonal 2-meter temperature forecast skill over North America . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 150 , 2617–2628.
Hakim, G., C. Snyder, S. Penny, and M. Newman, 2022: Subseasonal Forecast Skill Improvement from Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation with a Linear Inverse Model . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 49 , e2022GL097996, doi: 10.1029/2022GL097996.
Vimont, D. J., M. Newman, D. S. Battisti, and S.-I. Shin, 2022: The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution . J. Climate , 35 , 3195–3209,, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0599.1.
Jong, B.-T., M. Newman, and A. Hoell, 2022: Subseasonal Meteorological Drought Development over the Central United States during Spring . J. Climate , 35 , 2525–2547, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0435.1.
Capotondi, A., M. Newman, X. Tu, and E. DiLorenzo, 2022: An
Optimal Precursor of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Central
Pacific El Niño events . Geophys. Res. Lett. , e2021GL097350, doi: 10.1029/2021GL097350.
Zhao, Y., M. Newman, A. Capotondi, and E. DiLorenzo, 2021: Removing the Effects of Tropical Dynamics from North Pacific Climate Variability . J. Climate , 34 , 9249–9265, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0344.1.
Powers, S., et al., 2021: Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects . Science , 374 , doi: 10.1126/science.aay9165.
Shin, S.-I., and M. Newman, 2021: Seasonal Predictability of Global and North American Coastal Sea Surface Temperature and Height Anomalies . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 48 , e2020GL091886, doi: 10.1029/2020GL091886.
Albers, J. R., and M. Newman, 2021: Subseasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation . Environ. Res. Lett. , 16 044024.
Zhang, L., G. Wang, M. Newman, and W. Han, 2021: Interannual to Decadal Variability of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: Pacific Influence versus Local Internal Variability . J. Climate , 34 , 2669-2684, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0807.1.
Xu, T., M. Newman, A. Capotondi, and E. DiLorenzo, 2021: The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 48 , 2020GL090661, doi: 10.1029/2020GL090661.
Shin, S.-I., P. D. Sardeshmukh, M. Newman, C. Penland, and M. A. Alexander, 2021: Impact of Annual Cycle on ENSO Variability and Predictability . J. Climate , 34 , 171-193. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0291.1.
L'Heureux, M., A. Levine, M. Newman, C. Ganter, J.-J. Luo,
M. Tippett, and T. Stockdale, 2020: "Chapter
10: ENSO Prediction" . AGU Monograph: El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) in a Changing Climate , M. McPhaden, A. Santoso, W. Cai
(Eds.), Wiley, 506 pp.
Kumar, S., M. Newman, D. M. Lawrence, M.-H. Lo, S. Akula,
C.-W. Len, B. Livneh, and D. Lombardozzi, 2020: The GLACE-Hydrology Experiment: Effects of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Soil Moisture Variability and Drought Predictability . J. Climate , 33 , 6511-6529, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0598.1.
Henderson, S. A., D. J. Vimont, and M. Newman, 2020: The critical role of non-normality in partitioning tropical and extratropical contributions to PNA
growth . J. Climate , 33 , 6273-6295, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0555.1.
Mariotti, A., et al., 2020: Windows of Opportunity for Skillful
Forecasts S2S and Beyond . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 101 , E608–E625, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1.
Ding, H., M. Newman, M. A. Alexander, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2020:
Relating CMIP5 model biases to seasonal forecast skill in the
tropical Pacific . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 47 ,
e2019GL086765, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086765.
Shin, J., S. Park, S.-I. Shin, M. Newman, and M. A. Alexander, 2020: Enhancing
ENSO Prediction Skill by combining Model-Analog and Linear Inverse
Models (MA-LIM) . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 47 , early release, doi: 10.1029/2019GL085914.
Breeden, M. L., B. T. Hoover, M. Newman, and D. J. Vimont, 2020: Optimal
North Pacific Blocking Precursors and Their Deterministic
Subseasonal Evolution during Boreal
Winter . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 148 , 739-761, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0273.1.
Albers, J. R., and M. Newman, 2019: A
Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal
Forecasts . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 46 , 12527-12536, doi:
10.1029/2019GL085270.
Martinez-Villalobos, C., M. Newman, D. J. Vimont, C. Penland, and
J. D. Neelin, 2019: Observed
El Niño–La Niña Asymmetry in a Linear
Model . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 46 , 9909-9919, doi: 10.1029/2019GL082922.
Kumar, S., M. Newman, Y. Wang, and B. Livneh, 2019: Potential
reemergence of seasonal soil moisture anomalies in North
America . J. Climate , 32 , 2707–2734, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0540.1.
Ding, H., M. Newman, M. A. Alexander, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2019:
Diagnosing secular variations in retrospective ENSO seasonal
forecast skill using CMIP5
model-analogs . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 46 , 1721-1730,
doi: 10.1029/2018GRL080598.
Thomas, E. E., D. J. Vimont, M. Newman, C. Penland, and
C. Martinez-Villalobos, 2018: The
Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO
Diversity . J. Climate , 31 , 9125-9149, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0582.1.
Ding, H., M. Newman, M. A. Alexander, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2018:
Skillful climate forecasts of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean using
model-analogs . J. Climate , 31 , 5437-5459, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0661.1.
Dole, R., J. R. Spackmann, M. Newman, et al., 2018:
Advancing Science and Services during the
2015-16 El Niño: The NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field
Campaign . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 99 , 975-1001, doi:
10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0219.1.
Martinez-Villalobos, C., D. J. Vimont, C. Penland, M. Newman, and
J. D. Neelin, 2018: Calculating
State Dependent Noise in a Linear Inverse Model
Framework . J. Atmos. Sci. , 75 , 479-496, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0235.
Newman, M., A. T. Wittenberg, L. Cheng, G. P. Compo , and C. A. Smith ,
2018: The
extreme 2015/16 El Niño, in the context of historical climate
variability and change [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016
from a Climate Perspective ”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 99
(1), S16–S20, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0116.1.
Newman, M. and P. D. Sardeshmukh ,
2017: Are we
near the predictability limit of tropical sea surface
temperatures? Geophys. Res. Lett. , 44 , doi: 10.1002/2017GL074088.
Newman, M., M. A. Alexander , T. R. Ault, K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D. J. Vimont, A. S. Phillips, J. D. Scott, and C. A. Smith, 2016: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited .
J. Climate , 29 , 4399-4427., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1.
Capotondi, A. , A. T. Wittenberg, M. Newman, E. Di Lorenzo, J.-Y. Yu, P. Braconnot, J. Cole, B. Dewitte, B. Giese, E. Guilyardi, F.-F. Jin, K. Karnauskas, B. Kirtman, T. Lee, N. Schneider, Y. Xue, and S.-W. Yeh, 2015: Understanding ENSO diversity .
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 96 , 921-938.
Smirnov, D. , M. Newman, M. A. Alexander , Y.-O. Kwon, and C. Frankignoul, 2015: Investigating the local atmospheric response to a realistic shift in the Oyashio sea surface temperature front .
J. Climate , 28 , 1126-1147.
Vimont, D. , M. A. Alexander , and M. Newman 2014: Optimal growth of Central and East Pacific ENSO events .
Geophys. Res. Lett. , 41 , doi: 10.1002/2014GL059997.
Smirnov, D. , M. Newman, and M. A. Alexander , 2014: Investigating the role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Pacific Ocean .
J. Climate , 27 , 592-606, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00123.1.
Ault, T. , C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay , 2013: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium .
Geophys. Res. Lett , 40 , 3450-3456, doi:10.1002/grl.50647.
Newman, M., 2013: An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies .
J. Climate , 26 , 5260-5269, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00590.1.
Newman, M., 2013: Atmospheric science: Winds of change .
Nature Climate Change , 3 , 538-539, doi:10.1038/nclimate1915. Note: News and Views, not peer reviewed , based on L'Heureux, M., Lee, S. & Lyon, B. Nature Clim. Change 3, 571-576 (2013).
Goddard, L., and the US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2013: A verification framework for
Interannual-to-Decadal predictions experiments . Clim. Dyn. , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2.
Solomon, A. , and M. Newman,
2012: Reconciling disparate 20th century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record .
Nature Climate Change , 2 , 691-699, doi:10.1038/nclimate1591.
Newman, M., G. N. Kiladis , K. M. Weickmann , F. M. Ralph , and P. D. Sardeshmukh
2012: Relative contributions of synoptic and low-frequency eddies to time-mean atmospheric moisture transport, including the role of atmospheric rivers . J. Climate , 25 , 7341-7361. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00665.1
Newman, M., S.-I. Shin , and M. A. Alexander ,
2011: Natural variation in ENSO flavors .
Geophys. Res. Lett. , L14705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047658.
Solomon, A. , and M. Newman,
2011: Decadal predictability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean temperature trends due to anthropogenic forcing in a coupled climate model .
Geophys. Res. Lett. , 38 , L02703, doi:10.1029/2010GL045978.
Newman, M., M. A. Alexander , and J. D. Scott,
2011: An empirical model of tropical ocean dynamics .
Climate Dynamics , 37 , 1823-1841, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1034-0.
Solomon, A., and the US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and
anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability:
Implications for prediction . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. ,
92 , 141-156, doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1.
Newman, M., P. D. Sardeshmukh , and C. Penland ,
2009: How important is air-sea coupling in ENSO and MJO evolution?
J. Climate , 22 , 2958-2977.
Bladé, I., M. Newman, M. A. Alexander , and J. D. Scott, 2008: The late fall extratropical response to ENSO: Sensitivity to coupling and convection in the Tropical West Pacific.
J. Climate , 21 , 6101-6118.
Newman, M. and P. D. Sardeshmukh ,
2008: Tropical and stratospheric influences on extratropical
short-term climate variability. J. Climate , 21 , 4326-4347.
Sura, P.
and
M. Newman, 2008: The impact of rapid wind variability upon
air-sea thermal coupling. J. Climate , 21 , 621-637.
Newman, M., 2007: Interannual to decadal predictability of
Tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures.
J. Climate , 20 , 2333-2356.
Sura, P. ,
M. Newman, and M. A. Alexander , 2006: Daily to decadal
sea surface temperature variability driven by state-dependent
stochastic heat fluxes.
J. Phys. Ocean. , 36 , 1940-1958.
Download an adobe acrobat version (pdf) of the paper.
Sura, P. ,
M. Newman, C. Penland ,
and P. D. Sardeshmukh , 2005:
Multiplicative noise and non-Gaussianity: A paradigm for
atmospheric regimes? J. Atmos. Sci. , 62 , 1391-1409.
Download an adobe acrobat version (pdf) of the paper.
Lin, J. , B. Mapes , M. Zhang, and M. Newman, 2004: Stratiform precipitation, vertical heating
profiles, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation .
J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 296-309.
Newman, M., G. P. Compo , M. A. Alexander , 2003: ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation . J. Climate , 16 , 3853-3857.
Sardeshmukh, P. D. , C. Penland , and
M. Newman, 2003: Drift induced by multiplicative red noise with
application to climate . Europhysics Letters , 63 , 498-504.
Newman, M., P. D. Sardeshmukh ,
C. R. Winkler, and J. S. Whitaker, 2003: A study
of subseasonal predictability . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 131 , 1715-1732.
Alexander, M. A. , I. Bladé,
M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N.-C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric
bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea
interaction over the global oceans .
J. Climate , 15 , 2205-2231.
Winkler, C. R., M. Newman, and P. D. Sardeshmukh , 2001: A
linear model of wintertime low-frequency variability. Part I:
Formulation and forecast skill.
J. Climate , 14 , 4474-4494.
Sardeshmukh, P. D. , C. Penland , and
M. Newman, 2001: Rossby waves in a fluctuating
medium. In Stochastic Climate Models , ed. P. Imkeller and J.-S. von
Storch, Progress in Probability , Birkhaueser, Basel, pp. 369-384.
Newman, M., M. A. Alexander , C. R. Winkler,
J. D. Scott, and J. J. Barsugli , 2000: A
linear diagnosis of the coupled extratropical
Ocean-Atmosphere system in the GFDL GCM.
Atmospheric Sciences Letters , 1 , 14-25, doi:10.1006/asle.2000.0002.
Hendon, H., B. Liebmann , M. Newman,
J.D. Glick, and J.E. Schemm, 2000: Medium range forecast
errors associated with active episodes of the Madden-Julian oscillation.
Mon. Wea. Rev. , 128 , 68-86.
Newman M., P. D. Sardeshmukh , and
J. W. Bergman , 2000: An assessment
of the NCEP, NASA and ECMWF reanalyses over the Tropical West Pacific
warm pool. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 81 , 41-48.
Chen, P. and M. Newman,
1998:
Rossby-wave propagation and the rapid development of upper-level
anomalous anticyclones during the 1988 U.S. drought.
J. Climate , 11 , 2491-2504.
Newman, M. and P. D. Sardeshmukh ,
1998: The impact of the annual cycle on the North Pacific/North American
response to remote low frequency forcing. J. Atmos. Sci. ,
55 , 1336-1353.
Newman, M., P. D. Sardeshmukh , and C. Penland ,
1997: Stochastic forcing of the wintertime extratropical flow.
J. Atmos. Sci. , 54 , 435-455.
Sardeshmukh, P. D. , M. Newman, and M. D. Borges,
1997: Free Barotropic Rossby wave dynamics of the wintertime low-frequency flow.
J. Atmos. Sci. , 54 , 5-23.
Gierasch, P.J., et al., 1997:
The general circulation of the Venus atmosphere: An
assessment. In Venus II , ed. S. W. Bougher, D. M. Hunten, and
R. J. Phillips, The University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Az., pp. 459-500.
Newman, M. and P. D. Sardeshmukh , 1995:
A caveat concerning Singular Value Decomposition. J. Climate ,
8 , 352-360.
Newman, M. and J. Barsugli , 1993:
Quasilinear and nonlinear evolution of optimal initial perturbations
in barotropic flow. Ninth Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic
waves and Stability, San Antonio, Texas, 305-307.
Newman, M. and C. Leovy, 1992:
Maintenance of strong rotational winds in Venus' middle atmosphere
by thermal tides. Science , 257 , 647-650.
Walterscheid, R. L., G. Schubert, M. Newman, and A. J. Kliore, 1985:
Zonal winds and the angular momentum balance of Venus' atmosphere within
and above the clouds. J. Atmos. Sci. , 42 , 1982-1990.
Newman, M., G. Schubert, A. J. Kliore, and
I. R. Patel, 1984:
Zonal winds in the middle atmosphere of Venus from Pioneer Venus radio
occultation data. J. Atmos. Sci. , 41 , 1901-1913.
Gierasch, P.J., et al., 1997:
The general circulation of the Venus atmosphere: An
assessment. In Venus II , ed. S. W. Bougher, D. M. Hunten, and
R. J. Phillips, The University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Az., pp. 459-500.
Newman, M. and C. Leovy, 1992:
Maintenance of strong rotational winds in Venus' middle atmosphere
by thermal tides. Science , 257 , 647-650.
Walterscheid, R. L., G. Schubert, M. Newman, and A. J. Kliore, 1985:
Zonal winds and the angular momentum balance of Venus' atmosphere within
and above the clouds. J. Atmos. Sci. , 42 , 1982-1990.
Newman, M., G. Schubert, A. J. Kliore, and
I. R. Patel, 1984:
Zonal winds in the middle atmosphere of Venus from Pioneer Venus radio
occultation data. J. Atmos. Sci. , 41 , 1901-1913.
Presentations
CDC review poster
This page is maintained by Matthew Newman
[an error occurred while processing this directive]