Improving Week 2 Weather Forecasts Through "Re-Forecasting"

Thomas M. Hamill and Jeffrey S. Whitaker
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

Science Writer: Susan Bacon
University of Colorado

Concluding Remarks

As computer power grows each year, the complexity of weather forecast models will grow as well. But the take-home message of Whitaker and Hamill's research is that making a more complex computer model is not the end of the forecast process, but the beginning. The forecast model needs to be tested on lots of old weather scenarios. That way, before disseminating a forecast to the public, intelligent corrections can be made to remove model errors and determine what is predictable and what is not.

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