ESRL : PSD : Summary

Verification of 4-Month Lead Forecast of 3-Month Average Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

I.c. Time Fcst Time 1950-2005 1950-99 2000-05

H-O P-O H-O P-O H-O P-O

JA JFM 0.85 0.86 0.84 0.85 0.98 0.99

AS FMA 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.79 0.97 0.94

SO MAM 0.76 0.69 0.75 0.68 0.89 0.81

ON AMJ 0.56 0.47 0.55 0.46 0.66 0.51

ND MJJ 0.39 0.24 0.38 0.23 0.62 0.42

DJ JJA 0.39 0.10 0.36 0.08 0.80 0.47

JF JAS 0.56 0.08 0.57 0.05 0.95 0.60

FM ASO 0.57 0.14 0.60 0.11 0.81 0.63

MA SON 0.64 0.30 0.67 0.28 0.72 0.62

AM OND 0.72 0.49 0.75 0.48 0.83 0.64

MJ NDJ 0.78 0.71 0.80 0.72 0.87 0.59

JJ DJF 0.82 0.85 0.82 0.86 0.89 0.71

ALL 0.68 0.41 0.68 0.40 0.72 0.50

I.c. Time	Fcst Time	1950-2005		1950-99		2000-05
		H-O	P-O	H-O	P-O	H-O	P-O
JA	JFM	0.85	0.86	0.84	0.85	0.98	0.99
AS	FMA	0.82	0.80	0.81	0.79	0.97	0.94
SO	MAM	0.76	0.69	0.75	0.68	0.89	0.81
ON	AMJ	0.56	0.47	0.55	0.46	0.66	0.51
ND	MJJ	0.39	0.24	0.38	0.23	0.62	0.42
DJ	JJA	0.39	0.10	0.36	0.08	0.80	0.47
JF	JAS	0.56	0.08	0.57	0.05	0.95	0.60
FM	ASO	0.57	0.14	0.60	0.11	0.81	0.63
MA	SON	0.64	0.30	0.67	0.28	0.72	0.62
AM	OND	0.72	0.49	0.75	0.48	0.83	0.64
MJ	NDJ	0.78	0.71	0.80	0.72	0.87	0.59
JJ	DJF	0.82	0.85	0.82	0.86	0.89	0.71
	ALL	0.68	0.41	0.68	0.40	0.72	0.50

Physical Sciences Division