Schedule for Ensemble Workshop
at
The Far Hills Inn
Val-Morin, Québec
18-20 September 2003

NEW! PICTURES FROM WORKSHOP

(updated 13 Oct 2003 with links to presentations)

REGISTRATION:

Remember that there is a registration fee of US $50 .  Please do pay if you have not already.

SCHEDULE

Thursday, 18 September 2003

08:00 - 08:15   Registration / get name tags.

08:15  - 08:30   Introduction

08:30 - 12:30   Session 1:  The Treatment of Model Error in Ensemble Forecasts.  (Jim Hansen, MIT, Chair)

08:30 - 08:45   Alberto Arribas :  Testing of a Poor Man's Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Range Probability Forecasting.

08:45 - 09:00   Roman Zelazny : Multimodel Regional Ensemble Forecasting System: Concepts and Preliminary Results

09:00 - 09:15   Michael Denhard : Project for a Regional Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System in Europe

09:15 - 09:30   Jun Du : Initial Condition Ensemble vs. Physics Ensemble in Short Range

09:30 - 09:45   Bill Gallus :  Verification Issues and Ensemble Design for Warm-Season Convective System Rainfall Forecasting. 

09:45 - 10:00  Susanne Theis : Stochastic Physics in the High-Resolution LM

10:00 - 10:30  BREAK

10:30 - 11:00  Discussion

11:00 - 11:30  Cliff Mass : Overview of University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble System

11:30 - 11:45  Tony Eckel : Towards an Effective Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System

11:45 - 12:00  Kai Sattler : DMI Investigations on LAM short-range ensembles

12:00 - 12:15  Paul Nutter : Effects of Coarsely Resolved Temporally Interpolated and Perturbed Lateral Boundary Conditions on the Dispersion of Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts.

12: 15 - 13:15 LUNCH
 
13:15 - 13:30  Andrew Lawrence :  Increasing Multimodel Ensemble Size Using a Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique.

13:30 - 13:45  Tom Hamill : Representativeness and Model Errors in Ensemble Data Assimilation.

13:45 - 14:00  Josh Hacker : Calibration of Ensemble Spread Using Forecast Spectra

14:00 - 14:30  Discussion for Session 1.

14:30 - 15:00 BREAK

15:00 - 17:00  Session 2: Verification and Use of Ensemble Forecasts (Steve Mullen, University of Arizona, Chair)

15:00 - 15:15  Martin Leutbecher: ECMWF Ensemble Options

15:15 - 15:30  Tilman Gneiting: Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts Calibration and Sharpness

15:30 - 15:45  Guillem Candille (for Olivier Talagrand): Impact of Observational Errors on Validation of Ensemble Prediction Systems
15:45 - 16:00  Jean Nicolau : Meteo France Short-Range Ensemble

16:00 - 16:15  Guillem Candille: On the Limitations to Objective Evaluation of Ensemble Prediction Systems
16:15 - 17:00  Discussion

17:00 - 18:00  ICEBREAKER / INFORMAL RECEPTION

18:00 - 20:30  DINNER

Friday, 19 September 2003

08:15 - 16:45  Session 2 Continued

08:15 - 08:30  Laurence J. Wilson: Verification of Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System

08:30 - 08:45  Yuejian Zhu: Recent Changes in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System

08:45 - 09:00  Leonard Smith: Ensemble Estrangement and Model Inadequacy : How can we Better Turn Simulations into Forecasts?

09:00 - 09:15  Ken Mylne: Use of ECMWF EPS for Severe Weather Forecasting
09:15 - 09:30  Robert Hart : Using Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting Two Winter Storms

09:30 - 09:45  Lynn McMurdie: Major Numerical Forecast Errors of the 7-8 February 2002 Cyclone

09:45- 10:15  BREAK

10:15 - 11:15  Discussion

11:30 - 11:45  Jon Moskaitis: A Simple Model Study of Regime Transition Predictability

11:45 - 12:00  Matthew S. Wandishin: The SPC Spring Program: Some Preliminary Thoughts on Bringing SREF to the Operational Environment
 
12:00 - 13:15  LUNCH

13:15 - 13:30  Eric P. Grimit: Toward Short-Range Ensemble Prediction of Mesoscale Forecast Skill

13:30 - 13:45  Adrian Raftery: Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Forecasting with Model Ensembles Using Bayesian Model Averaging

13:45 - 14:00  Matt Pocernich: Model Output Statistics Utilizing Ensemble Predictors

14:00 - 14:15  Christian Sutton: Perturbing Soil Moisture in Short-Range Ensembles

14:15 - 14:30  Brian Etherton: Ensemble Forecast Weighting Using the ETKF

14:30 - 15:15  Discussion

15:45 - 16:15  BREAK / POSTER SESSION SETUP

16:15 - 17:45  POSTER SESSION

Robert Hart : Seasonal Forecasting using Natural Analog Ensembles

Jeremy Ross : Examination of the Skill Produced by a Natural Analog Ensemble System and its Potential Extension to Solving the Middle Latitude 2-4 Week Forecast Problem

Jeff Whitaker : Ensemble Re-Forecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecasts Using Retrospective Forecasts

Chris Snyder : Assimilation of Doppler Radar Observations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Chris Snyder : Cyclogenetic Perturbations and Analysis Errors Decomposed Into Singular Vectors

Malaquais Pena, Ming Cai, and Eugenia Kalnay: Direction of forcing in coupled atmosphere-ocean anomalies and forecast implications of one-way coupling

Jim Hansen : TBD

Steve Mullen : Calibration of Precipitation Forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by Artificial Neural Networks.

Xuguang Wang:  Which is Better, an Ensemble of Positive / Negative Pairs or Centered Spherical Simplex Points?

Kevin Brundage: Probabilistic Wind Forecasts Using 20 km RUC Ensembles

Chungu Lu :  RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System


18:00 - 20:30  DINNER


Saturday, 20 September 2003

08:15 - 12:15  Session 3: Methods of Generating Initial Conditions / Ensemble Data Assimilation (Chris Snyder, NCAR, Chair)

08:15 - 08:30  Xuguang Wang: Statistically Corrected and Augmented Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) Ensemble Forecast System

08:30 - 08:45  Shree Khare: Demonstration of a Strategy for Routine Observing System Design

08:45 - 09:00  Fuqing Zhang : Mesoscale Error Dynamics and Covariance Estimated Through Ensembles

09:00 - 09:15  Eugenia Kalnay, Malaquais Pena, Shu-Chi Yang, and Ming Cai : Ensemble Forecasting in Coupled Fast/Slow Systems
09:15 - 09:30 Jeff Whitaker: Ensemble Data Assimilation in the Pre-Radiosonde Era

09:30 - 09:45 Christian Keppenne: Initialization of Seasonal Forecasts with the Ensemble Kalman Filter

10:00 - 10:30 BREAK

10:30 - 10:45  Istvan Szunyogh: Implementation of the University of Maryland Ensemble Data Assimilation Scheme for the NCEP GFS
 
10:45 - 11:00  Ryan Torn: Initial and Boundary Conditions for a Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filter

11:00 - 11:15  Rolf Reichle: Assessing the Impact of Horizontal Error Correlations in Background Fields on Soil Moisture Estimation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter

11:15 - 11:30  Martin Charron:  Ensemble Kalman Filtering at the Mesoscale: Perfect-Model Experiments

11:30 - 11:45  Greg Lawson: Data Assimilation of Coherent Features

11:45 - 12:30  DISCUSSION

12:30 - 14:00 LUNCH

14:00 WORKSHOP ADJOURNS