Tom Hamill's Home Page

Curriculum Vitae
2007 AMS Ensemble Prediction Short Course

Recently submitted manuscripts and documents

• Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part I: 2-meter temperature (MWR, submitted)
• Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation (MWR, submitted)
• Making the AMS carbon neutral: offsetting the cost of flying to conferences (BAMS, Nov 2007 issue)
• Ensemble calibration of 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa and 2-meter temperatures using reforecasts. (MWR)
• HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (BAMS, in press)
• Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts (MWR)
• NOAA White Paper on Reforecasting
• Comments on "Calibrated Surface Temperature forecasts from the Canadian ensemble prediction system ... (MWR, in pres)
• Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? (QJRMS)
• On the theoretical equivalence of differently proposed ensemble/3D-Var hybrid analysis schemes (MWR)

Some recent presentations

• Washington Climate Impacts Group Refcst ppt
• ECMWF reforecast talk (1 hour) pdf ppt
• ECMWF reforecast talk (1/2 hour) pdf ppt
• ECMWF skill overforecast talk pdf ppt
  
• Seasonal climate prediction overview for NCAR Terrestrial Hydromet Workshop, 2007 ppt
• ECMWF reforecast calibration (IUGG, 2007) ppt
• Flow-dependent covariances in ensemble data assimilation (IUGG, 2007) ppt
  
• Reforecast presentation to NOAA NFUSE ppt
• Calibration of high-res. precipitation forecasts for Hydromet Test Bed ppt
  
• Ensemble forecast verification overview for 2007 NCAR verification workshop ppt
  
• Reforecast overview for NCEP ensemble workshop ppt
  
• Reforecasting with the ECMWF and NCEP GFS (IUGG)> ppt pdf
  
• Effect of Flow-Dependent Covariances in EnsDA (IUGG)> ppt pdf
  
• Reforecasting and Probabilistic Weather-Climate Prediction (May 2007 @Norman, OK) (ppt pdf )
  
• Ensemble Weather Forecasting and PQPF: Using Reforecasts (May 2007, COMET) (ppt pdf)
  
• Improving PQPFs over California using Water Vapor Flux as Predictor (April 2007, NCEP/HPC) (ppt pdf)
  
• ECMWF Temperature Reforecast (NCEP/GMB) (ppt pdf)
  
• Reforecast Overview for Denver/Boulder NWS (ppt)
• Ensemble forecasting overview for COMET (ppt)
• Reforecast Overview for Metro State AMS and Statistics Chapters (ppt)
• Ensemble forecast overview for NAS/NRC panel on forecast uncertainty (ppt)
• Reforecast Overview for NCEP Predictability Meeting, Nov 2006 (pdf)
• Ensemble Forecasting Introduction (HEPEX, ECMWF)
• May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak (ppt)
• Park City reforecast presentation
• Model error in Ensemble DA presentation (THORPEX, DC, Jan 06)
• Reforecast, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
• Skill Overforecast, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
• Ensemble DA in GFS, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
• Ensemble DA, ECMWF (pdf)
• Perturbing Soil Moisture in EF, AMS Annual '06 (ppt)
• CPC Reforecast Combo presentation (pdf)