Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/CDC Forecast of PDO in Pacific Domain
PDO Index Predictions (blue line) for 12 months, based on July-August-September 2008 initial conditions. Dotted lines indicate one standart deviation confidence interval, estimated from seasonally varying stochastic forcing. ( on the left). The time series units are degrees C. For typical values, the PDO timeseries can be divided by sqrt(N), where N = 125 is the number of grid boxes in the geographical domain. Comparison of PDO predictions errors: RMS errors vs lead time for LIM ( blue line), AR1 (red line) and a persistence forecast ( black line). ( on the right).
Numerical values
| NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/CDC Experimental Forecast | Normalized PDO Forecasts Errors |
|---|---|
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Predictions of PDO Index (blue solid line) and verification (solid red line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast.
Predictions and Verifications for 1970-present
Forecasts, Lead = 3 months
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